Trump Overestimates Iran's Vulnerability

In the wake of nationwide protests in Iran following a 12-day war with the U.S. and Israel, the ruling regime continues to demonstrate its strength. The initial conciliatory approach towards the protests shifted to a violent crackdown, showing the regime's enduring confidence. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei condemned the protests, leading to mass arrests and deadly force against demonstrators. Despite U.S. expectations that the military conflict and subsequent unrest would weaken Tehran’s negotiating position, recent talks, including those in Oman and Geneva, reveal Iran’s resilience and refusal to make concessions. Iran remains steadfast in its nuclear ambitions, signaling that bombings by external forces do not pose an existential threat to the regime. However, unresolved domestic issues could lead to future upheavals.